We walked past every swim section for years.

Pure assumption, zero data. We figured it was all five-dollar trunks and basic suits, so we left it for someone else to source. Then Carly comped a pair of trunks at a garage sale on a whim. The sell through came back at 170%. The ASP was $50. We bought them for two bucks and they sold fast.

That one find pulled the whole thread loose, and we ran the numbers on the entire category. 190 brands, 375 data points, 90 days of sold comps. We pulled May through July of last year separately as the in-season comparison window, which gave us a clean Seasonality Lift of 1.4x for both genders. Translation: swim moves roughly forty percent faster in season than the trailing 90-day baseline says it does. That's the multiplier you should be applying to every number that follows.

The headline finding is short and uncomfortable.

The brands you recognize are the worst movers. The brands you've been walking past are clearing inventory at eight and nine times the baseline.

Nine brands made the cut for the video. Five you probably don't know. Four you might.

Birdwell Beach Britches was the brand that started this whole project. 170% sell through across the men's category, around fifty bucks ASP. Women's came back at essentially 100%. The tell is a patch on the back waistband, and the interior tag always reads Made in California, sometimes with a separate Made in America flag tag stitched in. Women's Birdwell is the same construction with a shorter inseam, same Santa Ana origin. Once you know what you're looking for, you'll start finding them. They're hiding in plain sight.

Two brands separated themselves at the top of the women's data.

TA3 ran at 154% sell through, $80 ASP, nine times the women's baseline. It's essentially shapewear swim, and nothing else replaces it. The buyers paying for it know that. Spot it by the lace-up back and a large block T3 logo. Always has spandex content.

Eres came in lower on sell through at 49%, but the $119 ASP made it the highest dollar velocity item in the entire report. Premium French swimwear. You won't find it every weekend, but when you do, you grab it. Red font embroidered Eres, made in Italy.

Orlebar Brown is the price tag brand. $300 trunks at retail. The data set put it at 116% sell through with an $80 to $95 ASP. Buyers paying that retail have aged out of mall brands and want something that signals it. Red font on a white tag, marked OB Classic or Style Setter on the standard cuts. The louder the print, the more it pulls. An aerial print of surfboards in this set cleared $106.

Vilebrequin is the easiest spot of the group. They print the brand name on the back waistband large enough to read while you're walking past the rack. 68% sell through, $56 to $67 ASP, 752 sold in the window. The signature turtle print is common and adds significant value. Loud prints clear $95 to $130 regularly. The interior tag often reads Costume de Bain, so if you spot that on a swim short, flip the waistband and verify.

The ceiling brands write the headlines. The next four pay rent while you wait for them to walk through the door.

Lands' End is the cleanest lesson on Seasonality Lift in this report. 26% sell through over the trailing 90 days, applied at 1.4x lift, projects to roughly 37% in season. On Eres a 1.4x lift is academic. On a Lands' End floor brand it changes how you should source the next eight weeks. 3,900 sold against 16,000 active. Tankinis are the most consistent style, and the plus sizes sell faster than standard. Lighthouse logo with cup size on the interior tag.

Patagonia at the brand level reads as a trap. 23% sell through, below baseline, every reseller's instinct telling them to grab it anyway. The lesson here applies far outside swim. Sometimes the brand is the trap and the style is the asset. Patagonia Baggies, narrowed to the 5 inch inseam specifically, jumps to 65% sell through with 643 sold. Same brand, same construction, different cut. List with the inseam in the title every time. Style number is 57018 on the interior tag.

Vuori is the rare brand where volume and velocity coexist at thrift-friendly prices. 65% sell through at the brand level, three times the men's baseline, $33 ASP, 648 sold against 1,000 active. Narrow to the hybrid shorts and you're at 79%. The V patch on the lower leg is the easiest external tell. The interior rip tag is often cut out, but the leg patch stays.

Howler Brothers rounds out the volume tier. 40% sell through, $29 ASP, around 200 sold against 500 active. Twice the men's baseline. Lower volume than Vuori, but the supply is thin and the buyers are loyal. Monkey logo on the patch, Heed the Call embroidered on the back waistband. Aztec, Navajo, and elephant-style prints clear faster than solids.

Here is what the data is actually saying.

The brands you grab on instinct (Nike, Polo, Hollister, American Eagle) are sitting below baseline, and some of them well below. American Eagle men's is at 6% sell through. Hollister men's is at 9%. Lands' End men's, despite the women's number you just read, is at 5%. The brands moving eight and nine times faster are the ones nobody at the thrift looks twice at.

Three things to do with this for the next eight weeks.

First, sort your swim section differently in your head. The visual pattern at the thrift (recognized brand, walk to it) is exactly the wrong sort order. Use the tells in this issue to scan for the unrecognized brands first.

Second, list with the cut in your title. Patagonia Baggies 5 inch is a different listing than Patagonia Baggies. So is Vilebrequin Moorea vs Vilebrequin. The brand alone leaves money on the table.

Third, pay attention to aglets. The metal branded aglets on the drawstring are a fast tell for premium swimwear. Lulu, Vuori, Orlebar Brown all use them. George does not. It's the first thing I check on anything technical.

The complete spreadsheet is here. Every brand we ran, both genders, sell through ratios and percentages, ASP, sold count, active count, and confidence flags. Sortable however you like.

Open the full swim dataset →

I'll tell you straight up, there are brands in that sheet that didn't make the video and probably should have. Relwen ran at 450% sell through in the men's data. Rock Revival, of all brands, came in at 250%. Rhoback at 167%. Hunza G hit 128% on the women's side at a $108 ASP. The video had to fit nine. The sheet has all of them. Spend twenty minutes with it before your next sourcing run.

If you'd rather not dig through a spreadsheet while you're standing in the aisle, BrandScout does this work in real time. Three pictures (front, interior tag, style number tag), and it pulls comp data, sell through, ASP, and the tier the brand sits in. The full swim category is loaded with everything you just read above, plus the runners up.

Open BrandScout →

Reply with your best swim find of the year. I'll feature the best one in next week's issue.

Until next week,

Matt That Couple Flips